An aggressive U.S. tariff policy will trigger a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy this year and next, with the median probability of recession in the next 12 months approaching 50%, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Surging U.S. tariffs will weaken the global economy and push up inflation this year, according to projections to be released next week by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF’s Managing Director,

Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned in a speech that protectionism erodes productivity.