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Abstract: The Conditional Expectation Function (CEF) is an optimal estimator in real space. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), as the current state-of-the-art method, lack interpretability. Estimating ...
y <- (x-3)^3 + 3*x - .25*(x^2 * (x-3)) + rnorm(n=10000, mean=0, sd=3) dat <- data.frame(x = x, y = y) One of our most fundamental goals as data scientists is to produce predictions that are *good*. In ...
Paolacci, Gabriele; André, Quentin. Probabilistic Outcomes Are Valued Less in Expectation, Even Conditional on Their Realization. Management Science. Nov2024, Vol. 70 Issue 11, p7524-7536. Most ...
We systematically studied the relation between the conditional auto-correlation function (CACF) and cross-correlation function (CCF) of biphotons or pairs of single photons. The biphotons were ...
Market timing, when properly understood as trading based on conditional expectations rather than forecasting, can be an effective strategy for generating superior risk-adjusted returns. We look at a ...
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