It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

When our brains don't have a good intuition for reasoning with numbers, explicit probabilistic thinking can lead to improved decision-making. A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out ...

Given a few assumptions, the probability of a conjunction is raised, and the probability of its negation is lowered, by conditionalising upon one of the conjuncts. This simple result appears to bring ...

Sankhyā: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Series B (1960-2002), Vol. 64, No. 3 (Dec., 2002), pp. 239-266 (28 pages) A comparison between Bayes and classical estimators was executed by Samaniego and ...

WE ARE in a bar, and agree to toss a coin for the next round. Heads, I pay; tails, the drinks are on you. What are your chances of a free pint? Most people – sober ones, at least – would agree: ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...