It's certain that recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will swing close to Earth in 2032. The chances of an impact remain low — but with relatively limited observations so far, the odds are in flux.

A dive into probabilities, asteroid impact modeling, and what sort of damage an approximately 180-foot asteroid could cause on Earth.

YR4 has just above a 1% chance of crashing into Earth in 2032, which is why astronomers and space agencies are paying attention to it.