After you read this, you’ll have a 32% chance at better understanding how bad you are at probability. If the risk of an event goes up or down, we assume that it will keep changing in that direction.

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This article was originally published at The Conversation. The publication contributed the article to Space.com's Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights I was preparing for my early morning class back in ...

I have been studying planetary defense, particularly being part of past, ongoing, and future small body missions. I was part of the NASA/DART mission. I am currently part of the NASA/Lucy mission and ...