It's certain that recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will swing close to Earth in 2032. The chances of an impact remain low — but with relatively limited observations so far, the odds are in flux.

YR4 has a 2.2% chance of striking Earth in seven years, but recent updates keep pushing the odds in the wrong direction.

YR4 has just above a 1% chance of crashing into Earth in 2032, which is why astronomers and space agencies are paying attention to it.