Cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz has marked a small decline, but there’s been no major disruption to key oil infrastructure so far, easing some of the worst fears about the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.

Rystad researchers conclude there is a lower probability of the conflict escalating into a full-blown war and causing a huge spike in prices. But a potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran remains the most important market-moving event to watch for.

The CEOs of Baker Hughes (BKR) and Australia-based Woodside Energy, two of the largest energy companies in the world, said they couldn’t make firm predictions on oil prices amid the rising conflict between Iran and Israel,